Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated October 20, 2026.
Methodology →2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
75%

Gavin Newsom
72%

Jon Ossoff
61%

Josh Shapiro
60%

Kamala Harris
54%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Marco Rubio
54%

J.D. Vance
48%