Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated September 5, 2026.
Methodology →2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Jon Ossoff
70%

Gavin Newsom
61%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
60%

Josh Shapiro
60%

Pete Buttigieg
55%

Kamala Harris
52%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Marco Rubio
55%

J.D. Vance
49%