Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Updated continuously.
Methodology →Michigan Senate·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Abdul El-Sayed
75%

Haley Stevens
69%
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Jon Ossoff
69%

Gavin Newsom
58%

Josh Shapiro
55%

Kamala Harris
55%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
55%

Pete Buttigieg
51%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Marco Rubio
54%

J.D. Vance
44%