Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated October 20, 2026.
Methodology →
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$15.5M Vol · 14% to win nomination
75%
Gavin Newsom
$28.0M Vol · 16% to win nomination
72%
Jon Ossoff
$13.5M Vol · 14% to win nomination
61%
Josh Shapiro
$10.3M Vol · 6% to win nomination
60%
Kamala Harris
$14.1M Vol · 8% to win nomination
54%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Marco Rubio
$10.9M Vol · 18% to win nomination
54%
J.D. Vance
$16.0M Vol · 43% to win nomination
48%
Yes · wins
No · loses
Your stake$
Effective odds (after fees + slippage)
1
Loses Primary (refund)
Wins Primary
2
General Election
Wins General
Loses General