Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Updated continuously.
Methodology →
Michigan Senate·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Abdul El-Sayed
$299K Vol · 67% to win nomination
75%
Haley Stevens
$149K Vol · 32% to win nomination
69%
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Jon Ossoff
$12.2M Vol · 15% to win nomination
69%
Gavin Newsom
$26.5M Vol · 20% to win nomination
58%
Josh Shapiro
$9.1M Vol · 5% to win nomination
55%
Kamala Harris
$12.6M Vol · 8% to win nomination
55%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$14.0M Vol · 15% to win nomination
55%
Pete Buttigieg
$11.6M Vol · 5% to win nomination
51%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Marco Rubio
$9.8M Vol · 29% to win nomination
54%
J.D. Vance
$14.5M Vol · 41% to win nomination
44%
Yes · wins
No · loses
Your stake$
Effective odds (after fees + slippage)
1
Loses Primary (refund)
Wins Primary
2
General Election
Wins General
Loses General